← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 3, 08:05 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.82 | $8.20 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 54% | 1.82 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 46% | 2.18 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.09 | 2.10 | +0.3% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.76 | 1.76 | -0.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1547.16 | 1493.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.60 | 4.06 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.07 | 0.87 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 4.20 |