← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 3, 11:05 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.70 | +7% | +5.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 62% | 1.57 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 38% | 2.68 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.59 | 2.55 | -1.5% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.52 | 1.54 | +1.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1549.30 | 1461.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.30 | 1.64 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 1.95 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.50 |