← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 3, 11:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.30 | +9% | +8.30 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 55% | 1.83 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 45% | 2.20 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 2.09 | 2.12 | +1.2% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.73 | 1.73 | +0.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1516.32 | 1479.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.42 | 1.91 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.20 |