Houston Astros 3–6 Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Tue, Sep 29, 09:00 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Hagen Smith (ERA 1.29, WHIP 0.96) · home: AJ Blubaugh (ERA 3.66, WHIP 1.23)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in TBD v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.20	$12.00	-56%	+12.00	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Houston Astros win	54%	1.82
Chicago White Sox win	46%	2.20

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		2.05	2.05	0.0%
Houston Astros win		1.73	1.79	+3.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago White Sox	1	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	6
Houston Astros	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Houston Astros	Chicago White Sox
elo	1503.52	NaN
elo momentum (last 5)	7.36	5.38