← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Johnson (ERA 4.93, WHIP 1.35) · home: Kade Anderson (ERA 4.18, WHIP 1.21)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Angels win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.67 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.67 | $16.70 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 63% | 1.62 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 37% | 34.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.46 | 2.54 | +3.3% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.44 | 1.54 | +7.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1468.34 | 1421.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.80 | -3.58 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |