← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tanner Bibee (ERA 4.35, WHIP 1.22) · home: Michael Wacha (ERA 3.33, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 53% | 1.90 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 47% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.73 | 1.76 | +1.7% | |
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.05 | 2.09 | +2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| Kansas City Royals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1451.03 | 1516.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.01 | 7.65 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.00 |