← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 24, 04:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.34) · home: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.13)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 59% | 1.67 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 41% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.52 | 2.34 | -7.1% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.52 | 1.62 | +6.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1504.66 | 1482.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.96 | -5.10 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |