← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ian Seymour (ERA 4.38, WHIP 1.17) · home: Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.63, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays win in New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 44% | 2.36 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 2.09 | 2.30 | +9.8% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.73 | 1.67 | -3.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1562.23 | 1553.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.08 | 3.86 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |