← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael Soroka (ERA 3.45, WHIP 1.13) · home: Kyle Freeland (ERA 6.38, WHIP 1.47)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 63% | 1.62 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 37% | 8.56 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.55 | 1.10 | -28.7% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.24 | 8.56 | +282.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1376.48 | 1513.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.45 | -2.85 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |