← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sean Manaea (ERA 4.74, WHIP 1.32) · home: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.67, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets win in Texas Rangers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +2% | +12.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 54% | 5.56 |
| New York Mets win | 46% | 2.27 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.09 | 1.18 | -43.8% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.67 | 5.56 | +231.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1493.49 | 1494.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.57 | -3.12 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.29 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |