Chicago Cubs 2–8 Miami Marlins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 11:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Janson Junk (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.34)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Miami Marlins win in Chicago Cubs v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.73	$17.33	-1%	+17.33	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago Cubs win	64%	1.60
Miami Marlins win	36%	2.85

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Miami Marlins win		2.40	2.66	+10.8%
Chicago Cubs win		1.57	1.48	-5.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Total
Miami Marlins	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	8
Chicago Cubs	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Chicago Cubs	Miami Marlins
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1554.04	1483.08
elo momentum (last 5)	2.82	-1.55
matches since win	0.00	3.00
rest days	2.25	2.15
runs against avg (last 10)	3.90	6.30
runs for avg (last 10)	6.10	5.20