← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andre Pallante (ERA 3.7, WHIP 1.26) · home: Jared Jones (ERA 4.17, WHIP 1.19)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 57% | 1.73 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 43% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.05 | 2.29 | +11.5% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.60 | 1.67 | +4.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1506.65 | 1480.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.37 | -14.81 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.21 | 2.18 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |