← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 06:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.51, WHIP 1.41) · home: Quinn Mathews (ERA 3.62, WHIP 1.39)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +1% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 56% | 2.81 |
| Washington Nationals win | 44% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.19 | 2.23 | +2.0% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.67 | 1.69 | +0.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1477.54 | 1465.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.79 | 12.53 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |