← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Freddy Peralta (ERA 4.67, WHIP 1.34)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 53% | 1.93 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 47% | 2.29 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.93 | 2.13 | +10.5% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.70 | 1.74 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1545.94 | 1548.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.90 | 0.36 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.40 |