← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.55, WHIP 1.33) · home: Nick Pivetta (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.33 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 64% | 1.57 |
| Miami Marlins win | 36% | 2.98 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.73 | 2.98 | +9.2% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.48 | 1.42 | -4.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1541.20 | 1490.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.02 | 10.23 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.27 | 2.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 6.00 |