← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dustin May (ERA 4.49, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 57% | 1.79 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 43% | 2.34 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.67 | 1.79 | +7.1% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.14 | 2.05 | -4.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1502.69 | 1587.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.32 | 0.01 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 7.40 |