← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Mason Barnett (ERA 7.08, WHIP 1.62) · home: Daniel Espino (ERA 2.92, WHIP 1.22)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.54 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.54 | $5.40 | +3% | +5.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 61% | 1.62 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 39% | 2.89 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.34 | 2.61 | +11.4% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.55 | 1.51 | -2.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1503.85 | 1413.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.93 | -9.73 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 2.26 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.00 |