← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Framber Valdez (ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.36) · home: Erick Fedde (ERA 3.97, WHIP 1.34)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.83 | $4.15 | -4% | +4.15 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 56% | 1.86 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 44% | 15.64 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.12 | 15.64 | +638.6% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.70 | 1.05 | -38.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1488.72 | 1504.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.04 | 9.64 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.28 | 1.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.80 |