← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.76, WHIP 1.17) · home: Tyler Alexander (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.28)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 52% | 3.96 |
| Texas Rangers win | 48% | 2.20 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.76 | 3.96 | +124.4% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.93 | 1.28 | -33.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1491.94 | 1543.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.47 | -4.89 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.40 |