← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 05:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Anthony Molina (ERA 5.24, WHIP 1.25) · home: Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5.53, WHIP 1.49)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in St. Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.44 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.44 | $14.40 | -2% | +14.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 57% | 4.73 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 43% | 2.44 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.19 | 2.34 | +7.1% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.65 | 1.62 | -1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1489.56 | 1465.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.14 | -3.46 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |