← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: JR Ritchie (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.43) · home: Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.88, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Chicago Cubs v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 53% | 1.90 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 47% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.90 | 2.19 | +15.4% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.86 | 1.70 | -8.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1547.24 | 1542.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.51 | 3.16 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |