← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Logan Henderson (ERA 2.34, WHIP 0.78) · home: Jared Jones (ERA 4.1, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +1% | +7.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 45% | 2.18 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.74 | +2.2% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.05 | 2.14 | +4.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1498.28 | 1590.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.13 | 9.40 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 7.80 |