Cincinnati Reds 6–2 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Blake Snell (ERA 1.91, WHIP 1.09) · home: Andrew Abbott (ERA 4.78, WHIP 1.46)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	-1%	+15.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	63%	1.57
Cincinnati Reds win	37%	2.81

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.42	1.48	+4.3%
Cincinnati Reds win		2.59	2.73	+5.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	2	0	1	1	2	0	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cincinnati Reds	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	17.00	19.00
elo	1456.20	1585.58
elo momentum (last 5)	-9.27	2.58
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	7.80	2.90
runs for avg (last 10)	3.70	5.70