← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 11:00 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Chris Bassitt (ERA 4.88, WHIP 1.59) · home: Robert Stock (ERA 5.93, WHIP 1.75)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | -0% | +12.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 56% | 1.83 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 44% | 2.27 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.14 | 2.19 | +2.2% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.73 | 1.71 | -1.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1498.00 | 1498.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.26 | 2.73 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.10 |