← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 11:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in St. Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.47 | $14.70 | +0% | +14.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 59% | 1.67 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 41% | 2.47 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.24 | 2.38 | +6.2% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.62 | 1.62 | -0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1494.95 | 1460.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.59 | -6.92 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |