St. Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 11:45 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
St. Louis Cardinals win	58%	1.67
San Francisco Giants win	42%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Francisco Giants win		2.24	2.29	+2.3%
St. Louis Cardinals win		1.62	1.66	+2.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.