← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.55 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 60% | 1.62 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 40% | 2.55 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.62 | 1.56 | -3.5% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.24 | 2.52 | +12.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1450.83 | 1566.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.31 | 2.85 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.90 |