← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 12:10 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Royals win in Houston Astros v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.49 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.49 | $14.90 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 60% | 1.62 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 40% | 10.45 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.29 | 10.45 | +356.5% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.60 | 1.08 | -32.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1500.06 | 1467.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.64 | -1.57 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 2.27 | 2.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |