← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 15, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Chicago Cubs v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.40 | -1% | +12.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 54% | 6.29 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 46% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 2.09 | 1.15 | -45.0% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.70 | 6.29 | +269.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1551.22 | 1538.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.07 | 1.89 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |