Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 14, 10:40 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	-3%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	56%	1.73
Chicago White Sox win	44%	2.35

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		2.05	2.25	+9.7%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.70	1.67	-1.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.