New York Yankees v New York Mets

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:35 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Christian Scott (ERA 3.81, WHIP 1.29) · home: Cam Schlittler (ERA 2.01, WHIP 0.92)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	60%	1.62
New York Mets win	40%	2.34

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
New York Mets win		2.34	2.32	-1.2%
New York Yankees win		1.60	1.60	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.