Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 11:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Brady Singer (ERA 5.03, WHIP 1.47)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.57	$5.71	+10%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Milwaukee Brewers win	62%	1.57
Cincinnati Reds win	38%	2.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cincinnati Reds win		2.52	2.52	0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers win		1.52	1.50	-1.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.