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San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 02:15 AM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Robbie Ray (ERA 3.39, WHIP 1.34) · home: Anthony Molina (ERA 2.79, WHIP 0.88)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
MLB dog variance$10.002.24$12.36+3%—pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
San Diego Padres win56%1.76
San Francisco Giants win44%2.34

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
San Diego Padres win1.641.62-0.9%
San Francisco Giants win2.142.34+9.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

12345Total
San Diego Padres02500—
San Francisco Giants10000—