← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 02:15 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Robbie Ray (ERA 3.39, WHIP 1.34) · home: Anthony Molina (ERA 2.79, WHIP 0.88)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 57% | 1.76 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 43% | 10.45 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.64 | 1.62 | -0.9% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.14 | 6.39 | +198.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1469.03 | 1532.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.85 | 4.12 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.27 | 2.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.00 |