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St. Louis Cardinals 7–3 Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 12:15 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Anthony Kay (ERA 4.47, WHIP 1.36) · home: Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5.57, WHIP 1.47)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98
Elo value MLB$10.001.98$9.80+8%+9.80won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chicago White Sox win50%1.93
St. Louis Cardinals win50%1.98

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Chicago White Sox win1.861.93+3.9%
St. Louis Cardinals win1.831.90+3.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Chicago White Sox1010000103
St. Louis Cardinals11103010—7