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Tampa Bay Rays 3–1 Houston Astros

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Miguel Ullola (ERA 3.86, WHIP 0.86) · home: Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.88, WHIP 0.91)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Houston Astros win in Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46
MLB dog variance$10.002.46$14.59+2%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tampa Bay Rays win62%1.61
Houston Astros win38%2.59

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Houston Astros win2.522.46-2.5%
Tampa Bay Rays win1.551.57+1.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Houston Astros0001000001
Tampa Bay Rays0000100023