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Toronto Blue Jays 4–7 Baltimore Orioles

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 11:07 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Chris Bassitt (ERA 4.96, WHIP 1.58) · home: Max Scherzer (ERA 6.03, WHIP 1.36)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
Elo value MLB$10.001.76$7.63+5%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toronto Blue Jays win53%23.43
Baltimore Orioles win47%2.14

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Baltimore Orioles win2.091.03-50.9%
Toronto Blue Jays win1.6723.43+1298.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Baltimore Orioles1500001007
Toronto Blue Jays0001010024