← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Yusei Kikuchi (ERA 4.96, WHIP 1.47) · home: Cade Cavalli (ERA 3.12, WHIP 1.18)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +2% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 43% | 2.32 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.01 | 2.29 | +13.8% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1450.12 | 1428.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.87 | 12.16 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.11 | 2.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |