← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 10, 05:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cristian Javier (ERA 5.98, WHIP 1.55) · home: Zack Wheeler (ERA 3.23, WHIP 1.08)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | -0% | +16.59 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 62% | 1.58 |
| Houston Astros win | 38% | 2.66 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.46 | 2.52 | +2.5% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.52 | 1.55 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1559.82 | 1505.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.45 | -1.97 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |