← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 08:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +2% | +5.71 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 61% | 1.60 |
| Washington Nationals win | 39% | 2.59 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.46 | 2.59 | +5.3% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.57 | 1.52 | -3.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1529.52 | 1453.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.01 | -7.58 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |