← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +0% | +12.88 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 55% | 11.74 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 45% | 2.33 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.05 | 1.07 | -47.8% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.67 | 11.74 | +601.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1499.75 | 1498.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.03 | 5.20 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |