← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.78 | $7.80 | +6% | +7.80 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 55% | 1.78 |
| Chicago Cubs win | 45% | 2.17 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 2.01 | 2.13 | +6.2% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.76 | +3.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1580.75 | 1547.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.35 | -2.59 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.40 |