← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 11:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 52% | 1.90 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 48% | 2.05 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.91 | 2.01 | +5.0% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.72 | 1.83 | +6.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1541.07 | 1534.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.93 | 2.55 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |