← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +0% | +5.47 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 62% | 1.65 |
| Washington Nationals win | 38% | 2.67 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.46 | 2.60 | +5.9% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.50 | 1.53 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1528.13 | 1454.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.49 | -10.62 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |