← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 02:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nick Lodolo (ERA 5.08, WHIP 1.52)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.66 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.66 | $26.57 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 73% | 1.42 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 27% | 15.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 3.08 | 11.55 | +275.3% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.36 | 1.02 | -24.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1578.15 | 1470.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.35 | 7.56 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.00 |