← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Sean Burke (ERA 3.2, WHIP 1.14)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.90 | +0% | +12.90 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 56% | 1.73 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.05 | 2.19 | +6.6% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.63 | 1.69 | +3.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1504.57 | 1493.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.96 | -1.99 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.06 | 2.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |