Detroit Tigers 2–3 Minnesota Twins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 8, 10:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.79	$7.94	+5%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Detroit Tigers win	55%	1.79
Minnesota Twins win	45%	2.22

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Minnesota Twins win		1.97	2.19	+11.1%
Detroit Tigers win		1.67	1.72	+2.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Minnesota Twins	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
Detroit Tigers	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1491.96	1460.76
elo momentum (last 5)	1.26	-9.02
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	1.15	1.15
runs against avg (last 10)	5.70	4.80
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	5.50