← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 7, 09:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.30 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 62% | 1.57 |
| Washington Nationals win | 38% | 2.73 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.34 | 2.66 | +13.5% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.47 | 1.50 | +2.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1526.72 | 1456.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.11 | -4.95 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 1.04 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.10 |