← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 7, 07:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +5% | +7.94 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 46% | 4.31 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.93 | 2.09 | +8.4% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.70 | 1.79 | +5.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1490.32 | 1462.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.82 | -1.49 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.06 | 0.87 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.50 |