← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 10:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bailey Ober (ERA 4.37, WHIP 1.24) · home: Bryan Hudson (ERA 3.03, WHIP 1.21)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +2% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 43% | 2.29 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.19 | 2.25 | +2.7% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.52 | 1.68 | +10.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | — | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1500.55 | 1466.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.83 | 7.84 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |