← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jackson Jobe (ERA 4.63, WHIP 1.46) · home: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.81, WHIP 1.09)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 58% | 1.67 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 42% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.24 | 2.40 | +7.3% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.50 | 1.60 | +6.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1497.79 | 1492.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.11 | -0.30 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |