← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 01:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cade Cavalli (ERA 3.12, WHIP 1.2) · home: Tyler Glasnow (ERA 2.79, WHIP 0.81)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 68% | 1.46 |
| Washington Nationals win | 32% | 3.66 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.98 | 3.66 | +22.6% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.33 | 1.31 | -1.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1573.02 | 1458.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.29 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |